Ministers have been urged to investigate why some big academy trusts have nearly 50 per cent more pupils leaving their schools than expected.
FFT Education Datalab analysis has revealed that big trusts have higher numbers of vulnerable pupils joining other schools.
Council schools also disproportionately take in those pupils, the study found.
The Campaign for State Education (CASE), which commissioned the research, said the higher leaving rates were “unlikely to be just a matter of chance”. It called for the government to “instruct its regional directors to investigate”.
But others urged caution on drawing conclusions.
Trusts said differences were sometimes down to unique circumstances or the make-up of their cohorts – such as educating more children from families seeking asylum.
Anne Longfield, the executive chair of the Centre for Young Lives (CfYL) charity, said: “None of us should assume high numbers of children leaving some schools is just a part and parcel of our education system.”
“While many schools and MATs are leading the way on inclusion, it needs to become the norm. All children should be able to succeed in school, whatever their needs, and the system should support all schools to do it.”
More kids leave big trusts
The study looked at pupils in years 7 to 10 who were on roll at a state-funded secondary at the time of the January census in 2021-22. It then compared this with the number of pupils in years 8 to 11 in the January census of the following year.
Datalab found rates of “outward mobility” – pupils leaving – was higher in academies that were part of large trusts. The rate was 5.6 per cent compared with 4.4 per cent in local authority schools – 28 per cent more.
This difference was smaller (13 per cent), but still persisted when pupil characteristics of school cohorts were accounted for.
Vulnerable pupils who left school during the year were also disproportionately taken in by a local authority school. The leaver rate for vulnerable pupils at large trusts was also slightly higher than for other schools.
Pupils move schools for a variety of reasons, including family relocation or a search for a better education. Others may be encouraged by their schools to leave, known as off-rolling, the study said.
But its authors warned: “The motivation behind such moves cannot be inferred from data alone.”
The government has pledged to inspect and highlight inclusivity as part of new Ofsted report cards introduced in September.
Jonny Uttley, who is putting together an “inclusion vision” for the Centre for Young Lives charity, said it was important “we don’t leap to judgment about particular trusts… We should not assume those with higher-than-expected levels of mobility are involved in nefarious practice.”
But he added it is “equally important that there are honest and transparent discussions about why some mobility levels are so high”.
What do trusts say?
Of the 27 trusts with 10 or more mainstream secondary schools, 23 had higher than expected numbers of pupils leaving. Eight were at least 30 per higher.
At the Ted Wragg Multi Academy Trust, 6.9 per cent of the pupils left their schools over the year – 44.3 per cent higher than expected, based on Datalab’s modelling of pupil cohorts.
However, the trust pointed out the analysis included two schools that joined late in 2023, which meant the figures could have included earlier mobility.
A spokesperson also said it had the highest percentage of pupils that moved from one trust school to another because of their close proximity and “unique culture”.
Many of its schools were in areas with high pupil mobility, such as Plymouth, and also supported families seeking asylum who were in temporary accommodation.
The trust’s own data also shows 40 per cent of pupils that had “outward mobility” joined a Ted Wragg school from another secondary.
“We are proud to support our communities and work hard to ensure our schools are ambitious and inclusive places where children can transform their life chances through learning,” the spokesperson said.
Star Academies had a 5.5 per cent leaver rate, 41.8 per cent higher than expected. The trust did not respond to a request for comment.
David Ross Education Trust, which has 35 schools, had a 41.5 per cent higher leaver rate. The trust said its academies were in “above-average areas for high mobility, in coastal and urban areas where industry is declining or stopped altogether”.
The areas have also been “heavily affected by Brexit and changes to immigration and emigration, often with families returning overseas”.
‘We need better inclusion understanding’
The previous government shelved a plan to include contextual information relating to inclusion alongside league tables.
Showing again why data around inclusion is tricky to draw conclusions from, Unity Schools Partnership said its figures included many pupils who had left amid a wider, local reorganisation of moving three-tier to two-tier schools.
The trust was “committed to working with local schools and does not believe it has higher numbers than average of pupils leaving its schools”.
A spokesperson for The Kemnal Academies Trust added its inward and outward mobility levels were similar, which reflected “the challenging contexts of the communities we serve”.
The other trusts with 30 per cent more pupils leaving than expected did not want to comment or did not respond.
The Co-Operative Academies Trust was one of just four large trusts to have below expected numbers of pupils leaving (5.5 per cent compared with an expected 6.5 per cent).
Chris Tomlinson, its chief executive, said the trust had a “real commitment to social inclusion and its local communities”.
‘Understand how inclusive different schools are’
Uttley added that Ofsted and the government “must become much better at understanding how inclusive different schools and trusts are and show more interest in the proportion of children from local communities that attend and succeed in particular schools.
“This is something neither has even attempted to do until now.”
Frank Norris, an education adviser for the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, said pupil mobility numbers were “quite complex” and often came down to “circumstances around an individual school”.
However, he said “independent oversight” of schools in particular areas was needed, adding “analysing the circumstances around the inward and outward mobility would be a key element of this oversight”.
Labour has pledged to give councils more powers to coordinate school admissions.
Others have called for regulation responsibilities currently overseen by the government’s regional directors to instead sit in an independent regulator, or be devolved to regional mayors.
Internal AP and community pioneers
But trusts also say other parts of the system are not helping.
DRET has called for national standards for fair access protocols and panels (FAPs), which are responsible for finding a school place for vulnerable children who move mid-year.
A Schools Week investigation in 2019 found hundreds of pupils had failed to secure a place, with some waiting up to ten and a half months.
A DRET spokesperson said it was “becoming clear that pupils are at risk of being moved from school to school without intervention through ineffective FAPs”.
They also said that boosting per capita funding for areas of high mobility, and particularly schools that took on significant numbers of in-year transfers, “should be considered”.
Co-Op said all its secondaries now had their own internal alternative provision – as opposed to using external AP – to boost inclusion.
It had also appointed “community pioneers” at its schools to help pupils with food, hygiene and wellbeing issues.
