The number of children “missing” from education could be closer to 300,000, researchers have warned, with almost one in 10 pupils leaving the education system by year 11.
Data published by the government earlier this year suggested 117,100 children were considered to be missing from education at some point in 2022-23, up from 94,900 the year before.
But new data from the Education Policy Institute suggests the figure could be around 2.5 times higher.
The think tank’s report warned previous attempts to understand the scale of the problem had been “hampered by gaps in data collection and the inherently hidden nature of many cases”.
To address those gaps, the EPI compared GP and school registrations to generate an estimate of the number of children not enrolled at any school. It then excluded those registered as home educated to find those missing education.
Figure ‘2.5 times higher than DfE estimate’
The report estimated “that as many as 305,000 are missing entirely from education in 2023 – an increase of 41 per cent from 2017”.
“This figure is around 2.5 times higher than the Department for Education’s estimate.”
Researchers said “further research is needed to establish the drivers of this rise”.
But they added the increase “may be related to the changing nature of children’s additional needs, pressures on schools’ capacity to meet those needs, and the ability of systems to provide appropriate oversight of decisions regarding children’s entry to and exit from schools”.
The EPI also used the data to track a single cohort, finding that by year 11, more than 50,000 pupils once registered at a state school, or 8 per cent, had left the system.
“Schools are not required to record the reasons for pupils leaving their rolls, and we do not know how many of these exits are due to migration out of the country.”
Some pupils more likely to be missing
Secondary pupils, particularly those aged 13 to 15, were less likely to be in school. The number of 15-year-olds not in school doubled from around around 25,000 in 2017, to around 50,000 in 2023.
“While the reasons for age differences require further exploration, this trend may be related to developmental changes during adolescence, a period marked by increased academic expectations, changing social dynamics, and the potential onset of mental health problems.”
Girls are also “less likely to be in school than boys, especially during adolescence”.
In 2023, just over 205,000 girls were not in school compared with around 195,000 boys, according to the EPI’s data.
“This gap has widened over time and runs parallel to the increasing disparity in mental health outcomes between adolescent girls and boys.”
The pupils who leave the education system by year 11 are “more likely to be vulnerable and already marginalised”.
Pupils from Traveller communities are nine times more likely to leave school early, and those who are persistently disadvantaged twice as likely compared with pupils overall.
And those with social, emotional, or mental health difficulties and care-experienced children were also more than twice as likely to miss a period of mainstream education during the primary or secondary phases, compared with the overall cohort.
Make schools record degregistration reasons
The government should require schools to record reasons for de-registering pupils, and use existing data from health, education and local authority data systems “to ensure that vulnerable children do not fall through the cracks”, the EPI said.
This should include progress on plans for a mandatory register of children not in school.
Whitney Crenna-Jennings, associate director, mental health, wellbeing and inclusion at the Education Policy Institute said: “Many thousands of children are missing or go missing from education in England – this is a critical issue that demands our attention.
“Whilst some may be receiving a suitable education outside of formal settings or in different countries, this research shows that the children who go missing are often amongst the most vulnerable in our society, potentially at risk of harm and poor outcomes.”
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT leaders’ union, called for “significant investment” in services that support children.
He said it was “extremely concerning that so many children are missing school entirely, both for their education, but also potentially their safety”.
“Schools work tirelessly to provide an inclusive environment, and ensure children engage in education, but there are many factors affecting this, including the pandemic, cost of living crisis, and a decade of austerity under previous governments.”
He warned that “many councils have reduced early support for families amid government cuts, while funding for children’s mental health services and provision for children with special educational needs and disabilities has failed to keep pace with demand”.
“A lack of capacity in essential services for pupils with additional needs sometimes makes it very difficult for local authorities and schools to provide the level of support they need.”
