Leaders of ‘outstanding’ schools downgraded immediately after the Ofsted exemption was axed in 2020 say they have been unfairly disadvantaged after new figures show a boom in the proportion keeping their top rating.
Between 2012 and 2020, ‘outstanding’ mainstream schools were exempt from routine inspection. More than 80 per cent lost their badge in the year after the exemption was lifted.
But last year 40 per cent of those schools kept their top grade, figures released this week show. The data is from the final year before headline grades were axed.
Asked to explain the increase, Ofsted said there was “no clear reason”. But it was “possible (but not provable) that our series of events for outstanding schools may have been a contributing factor”.
National events, held during the summer term of 2023, aimed to help ‘outstanding’ schools better understand the 2019 framework and its curriculum emphasis.
But others say different.
‘No flexibility or understanding’ after Covid
Halstow Primary in Greenwich, south London, and part of the Compass Partnership, was downgraded to ‘good’ in 2021.
John Camp, Compass’s chief executive, said the Covid pandemic affected schools in “varying and complex ways”. But when it reintroduced inspections, Ofsted treated all schools as if “Covid is over”.
“Inevitably those inspected early on would have found it much harder to maintain ‘outstanding’ when no flexibility or understanding was applied to the inspection process.”
Lancaster Royal Grammar School also dropped to ‘good’ in 2021.
Dr Chris Pyle, its head, said inspector decisions “shifting over time should point us to fundamentally re-think the inspection model.
“We should consider including at least a degree of long-term oversight and challenge, instead of just a frantic two-day hit.”
‘Reluctance’ to downgrade?
Last year, a coroner ruled that an inspection contributed to the death of Reading head Ruth Perry.
The watchdog has implemented a raft of measures in response, including mental health training for inspectors, changes to its complaints process and more time for schools to fix minor safeguarding issues.
Professor John Jerrim, from the UCL Institute of Education, said Ofsted’s prioritisation of the schools not inspected for longest “may be driving the recent increase”.
But he added he would “not be surprised” if inspectors were more reluctant to issue downgrades.
Frank Norris, a former senior inspector, agreed there was “little doubt” the fallout over Perry had “played into the uptick”.
He said heads had reported inspectors “going out of their way to be especially kind and considerate”.
‘The fundamental problem is that it’s a game’
Ofsted introduced its new framework in 2019, which had a higher bar to reach ‘outstanding’.
Two schools in the Wellspring Academy Trust dropped to ‘good’ in 2021-22.
Mark Wilson, the trust’s chief executive, said it was “typical of the trajectory of Ofsted frameworks” that they were “tighter” in the early phases, before schools “learn to play the game”.
“The fundamental problem is it is that – a game. And people who have got an ‘outstanding’ badge have showed they’re capable of playing the game, whatever the framework is at the time.”
But he added that the fallout over Perry’s death had “empowered some of our leaders to understand that maybe [Ofsted are] not as powerful as they once were”, leading to more “robust” challenge.
Warren Carratt, the chief executive of Nexus Multi-Academy Trust, said inspectors were “more anxious than before about inspections being challenged”.
“They’re only human, after all, and I think it would be naive to not consider unconscious bias in these stats, which is an inherent component of the human condition.”
Wilson said new frameworks should spend “an entire year in the public domain” before inspections started.
Tories’ favourite Ofsted stat ditched
The Ofsted “state of the nation” metric became a regular soundbite for Conservative education ministers boasting about the supposed success of their reforms – despite repeated warnings the statistic was misleading.
Ofsted is retiring the metric, which measured the proportion of schools rated ‘good’ or better after headline grades were scrapped.
The metric was not reliable because of repeated changes both within the sector and to inspections themselves.
Ofsted even launched its own broadside in a report published on Tuesday in which it said “many factors” may have affected the rising number of schools getting top grades since 2010, but it “cannot quantify the impact of all the different influences over time”.
“As we look back over this period, we advise caution when viewing the data across different frameworks, and over extended periods.”
Ofsted said it was “considering what alternative analysis might be most useful once we’re clear on the new arrangements for September 2025”.
