The Ofsted ‘state of the nation’ metric became a regular soundbite for Conservative education ministers boasting about the supposed success of their reforms – despite repeated warnings the statistic was misleading.
But following an end to headline Ofsted grades in September, the watchdog has confirmed it is now retiring the measure, which showed the increasing number of schools rated ‘good’ or ‘outstanding’.
Nine in ten schools are now rated ‘good’ or better, data published today shows, up from 86 per cent when the current framework was introduced and 68 per cent in 2010.
The previous government frequently trumpeted that rise, despite repeated warnings – including from the statistics watchdog – about how misleading they are (particularly because the decade rise covered different inspection frameworks).
Ofsted’s “big listen” consultation earlier this year found just 13 per cent of respondents from schools agreed the measure was “truly reflective of the overall quality of the sector”.
Now Ofsted has launched its own broadside at the metric, as it considers what a replacement might look like when new report cards launch next autumn.
Here’s what we learned …
1. ‘Difficult to isolate’ impact of changes…
The ‘state of the nation’ measure was created in 2010 and was “developed to give a comprehensive view of the sectors, as judgments from a single year’s worth of inspections are often affected by the mix of providers inspected”.
But it was “intended as a high-level comparison and should be used with caution when comparing over long periods of time”, Ofsted said.
For instance, how Ofsted inspects and how often different types of school are inspected has “changed multiple times” since 2010.
This affected “both the actual statistics, and the extent to which those statistics comprehensively summarise the quality of the sector”.
“With multiple changes happening at the same time, it is difficult to isolate the impact of each factor on the overall picture.”
2. …with ‘significant’ sector and inspection change
The proportion of schools judged ‘good’ or better has increased from 68 per cent in 2010, which “aligns with a view that the sector has improved”.
But the sector “experienced significant change throughout this period”, including academisation, the growth of multi-academy trusts, changes to key stage tests and Covid disruption.
And although there has been an overall effectiveness judgment on a four-point grading scale since 2005, the “inspection process, the evidence that feeds into the inspection, and the sub-judgements that underpin the overall effectiveness judgement, have changed regularly”.
The measure also currently combines overall effectiveness grades from across five different inspection frameworks.
Just 49 per cent of schools have had a graded inspection under the current EIF that started in 2019.”
3. More regular inspections post 2012 spurred biggest rise
The “greatest change” in the proportion of schools judged ‘good’ or ‘outstanding’ occurred between 2012 and 2015, when it increased from 69 per cent to 82 per cent.
The new framework in 2012 replaced the ‘satisfactory’ grade to ‘requires improvement’.
Those judged RI twice and still found not to be providing a good education were “likely” to be found ‘inadequate’ at their third inspection.
New monitoring visits were also brought in, and follow-up inspections were carried out earlier than before (within two years).
The number of inspections carried out “increased as a result”, and this “provided an opportunity for schools to demonstrate the improvements they had made, with consequent impact on the state of the nation statistic”.
4. Ungraded visits help identify issues quickly
In 2015, Ofsted also introduced ungraded inspections for ‘good’ and ‘outstanding’ schools.
Inspectors not satisfied that a school would have received at least its current grade at a full inspection could convert to a graded visit.
However, since January 2018, “this only happens if there is a concern about safeguarding, behaviour, or the quality of education”.
Only 1 per cent of ungraded inspections converted last year. And “in most cases, if the inspector finds the school may be declining or improving, we carry out a follow-up graded inspection in 1 to 2 years”.
At the end of August 2024, there were 489 schools, 2 per cent of the total, that had a grade of ‘good’ or ‘outstanding’ at their most recent graded inspection, but where concerns had been identified at their subsequent ungraded inspection.
“Most such schools do not receive a judgement of less than good at their follow-up graded inspection. This may be because identifying issues at an ungraded inspection helped these schools to improve quickly.”
5. ‘More opportunities’ to demonstrate improvement than decline
Another issue behind the metric is that schools with strong performance have also been inspected “less often than weaker schools”.
Timetables have varied based on previous inspection outcomes, the phase of education, whether the school is new or has seen significant changes.
Since 2007, a “risk assessment model considering context and performance data for the school has played a part in determining either the timing, or the type, of inspection a school receives”.
This approach to inspection “means that overall, there have been more opportunities for weaker schools to improve their grade than there are for stronger schools to decline”.
6. ‘Outstanding’ schools exempt for 8 years
Meanwhile, between 2012 and 2020, ‘outstanding’ primary and secondary schools were exempt from routine inspection.
It meant scores of ‘outstanding’ schools had gone without an inspection for more than ten years by the time the exemption ended.
Over the period, the proportion of ‘outstanding’ schools fell slightly from 20 to 19 per cent. But “this is probably because, during the period of the exemption, we could still inspect exempt schools if we had concerns”.
Out of the 3,900 schools that were ‘outstanding’ when the exemption was introduced, “only 1,970 remained outstanding at the end of the period”.
By August 2024, the proportion of ‘outstanding’ schools fell to 14 per cent. Just 30 per cent of schools kept the top grade at full inspection between 2021 and 2024.
7. Conclusion: ‘We would advise caution’
Ofsted concluded there were “many factors that may have affected the proportion of all schools judged ‘good’ or ‘outstanding’ at their most recent inspection since this measure started in 2010”.
“However, we cannot quantify the impact of all the different influences over time. As we look back over this period, we advise caution when viewing the data across different frameworks, and over extended periods of time.”
If only they had told the previous government’s education ministers…
8. What happens next?
Ofsted is working on plans for new report cards, which it was revealed earlier this month could see schools awarded one of five grades across 10 inspection areas.
The watchdog will need to decide whether to replace the headline state of the nation measure. Schools Week approached Ofsted for clarification on whether it would do so, and when.
