The proportion of school pupils eligible for free school meals (FSM) who go on to university has fallen for the first time since current records began, data published today reveals.
For youngsters eligible for FSM when they were 15, the higher education progression rate by age 19 fell from 29.2 per cent in 2021-22 to 29 per cent in 2022-23.
This is the first time the progression rate has fallen year-on-year since 2005-2006.
The gap in progression rates to “high tariff” top universities between those who had and hadn’t been eligible for FSM also increased to the “highest recorded level in the series”.
The gap jumped from 9 percentage pints to 10.6 percentage points, the official data published today shows.
The progression rate for disadvantaged pupils more broadly – those eligible for FSM at any point over the past six years – also fell for the first time since 2013-14.
The rate dropped from 32.5 per cent in 2021-2022 to 31.9 per cent in 2022-2023, the statistics show.
This compares to over half, 51.8 per cent of all other pupils in 2022-2023, up slightly from 51.7 per cent in 2021-2022.
Getting more disadvantaged young people to go to university has been a key aim for successive governments.
Robbie Cruikshanks, a senior researcher of higher education at the Education Policy Institute, said: “Despite some progress in widening participation for disadvantaged students in recent years, today’s data shows worrying signs that that this progress has stalled, and might even be going in reverse.
“The government must continue efforts to narrow this participation gap with an ongoing aim to address the financial burden of higher education faced by disadvantaged students.”
The government must also “ensure that there are accessible and high-quality post-18 pathways offered to the majority of students who do not progress to higher education”.
Caution urged over Covid comparisons
Today’s data covers A-level students who were due to sit exams during the Covid-hit academic year of 2019-20.
As such, the government has advised comparisons with previous years should be “treated with caution”.
The attainment gap has grown since the pandemic, but also started widening before Covid, having narrowed to its joint lowest level in 2017.
Key stage 4 data published in October showed the attainment gap, which is based on average GCSE English and maths attainment nationally, widened from 3.84 last year to 3.95 this year.
The gap has now widened every year since 2020.
Overall, the progression rate to higher education by age 19 has increased slightly from 46.8 per cent in 2021-2022 to 46.9 per cent in 2022-2023, the data shows.
The the progression rate to high tariff higher education also rose from 13 per cent to 15.3 per cent overall.
Regional and ethnic group differences
Over half of youngsters in inner London who’d been eligible for FSM when they were 15 progressed to higher education by the time they were 19 in 2022-23.
This compares to 29 per cent nationally and fewer than a fifth in the south west.
Higher education progression rates were also above 50 per cent for former FSM-eligible students in 15 London council areas.
But they were below 20 per cent in about a quarter of local authorities, all outside the capital.
Higher education progression rates were also found to “vary considerably” by ethnic group.
For instance, white pupils were the least likely to progress to higher education by age 19 at 41.8 per cent, compared to 51.8 per cent for “mixed/multiple ethnic groups”, 62.4 per cent for Black/African/Caribbean/Black British groups and 68.4 per cent for Asian/Asian British groups.
Progression rates fell for Black/African/Caribbean/Black British pupils and either stayed the same or increased for the other broad ethnic groups, the data shows.
More private school pupils going to university
The progression rate by age 19 for state school A-level students also dipped from 82.3 per cent to 82 per cent between 2021-22 and 2022-23, the data shows.
Some 88.5 per cent of students who took A-levels in independent schools went on to higher education – 6.5 percentage points higher than for those in state schools and colleges.
The gap between these two groups has increased slightly from 6.4 to 6.5 percentage points for the latest cohort.
And 67.8 per cent of pupils who took A-levels in independent schools progressed to high tariff higher education.
The data release noted the gap “remains large when focusing on high tariff HE”.
It said 67.8 per cent of pupils who took A-levels in independent schools progressed to high tariff higher education.
That’s 33.6 percentage points higher than those in state-funded schools and colleges (34.2 per cent). This gap is up from 32.8 percentage points last year.
