Abysmal teacher recruitment data may be under-stating the challenge, the government has suggested, given “underperformance” in subjects with already generous bursaries and retention payments.
The Department for Education has published its evidence to the School Teachers’ Review Body.
Its proposal of a 2.8 per cent pay rise for teachers next year has grabbed headlines, but the evidence sheds a light on government thinking about the recruitment and retention crisis.
Here’s what we learned.
1. Abysmal recruitment data may under-state the challenge…
Successive governments have missed secondary teacher recruitment targets for years, apart from during a brief improvement during the Covid pandemic.
Primary recruitment has also stalled recently, with the target missed by the largest margin on record this year.
But the DfE warned in its evidence that comparing performance against recruitment targets “does not reflect the relative recruitment challenges across subjects in full”.
“For example, the underperformance against target in subjects such as maths, physics, chemistry, and computing is especially notable, given the interventions already in place, including bursaries to support recruitment, and later, the targeted retention incentive”.
2. …and new trainees take time to enter the classroom
This underperformance on PGITT recruitment in recent years has also “yet to be felt in full in the school system, with the cohorts above yet to move through the pipeline from recruitment and training to becoming a teacher in a state-funded school”.
The cohort that entered postgraduate teacher training in 2023-24 “will make up the vast majority of newly qualified entrants in 2024-25”.
“With the size of this secondary trainee cohort also over 20 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, it is reasonable to anticipate that the number of newly qualified entrants to the workforce will remain well below historic norms.”
This “may be exacerbated by potential further falls in the number of deferred newly qualified entrants, given these will be drawn mainly from the historically small 2022-23 PGITT cohort”
3. ‘Challenging period ahead’
To a “significant extent, the number of newly qualified teachers becoming available to schools over the next few years is already locked in – and indicates a challenging period ahead”.
“It will be essential to look to other recruitment sources, as well as improving retention, over this period. However, the lead-in time on recruitment cycles means that any increase to PGITT numbers now will support teacher supply in future years.”
4. Some good news! There was record returners…
In 2023-24, 8,210 former secondary teachers returned to the profession, the highest number on record. There were at least 970 more returners than in any previous year.
Similarly, the number of entrants who were new to the state-funded school sector – those who qualified more than two years before their first state school post – reached 2,700, just 200 below the previous peak in 2014-15.
5. …but we don’t really know why
The DfE said it was “unclear what drove these increased numbers of non-ITT entrants, but it may be partially in response to the reduced availability of newly qualified teachers from ITT routes”.
“Without a clear understanding of the cause of the increase, it is difficult to determine if this is the beginning of a trend towards higher numbers of non-ITT entrants.
“The extent to which schools are able to attract high-quality teachers to state-funded classrooms from these pools of already-qualified candidates will be a key factor for the sufficiency of supply over the coming years.”
6. School teachers could move into FE
According to the evidence, the teaching workforce will “experience change over the next few years as demographic changes lead to increased demand in the FE sector in 16 to 19 education, and reduced demand in primary schools”.
This includes an “estimated increase in the 16-18 year old population from around 2 million people in 2023 to 2.17 million in 2028”.
It is “possible that this will lead to increased movement of the workforce between the FE and schools sectors in common subject areas, which could also be a welcome opportunity for teachers to continue developing with new opportunities throughout their careers.”
7. DfE planning ‘review process’ for NPQs
The DfE said its suite of leadership national professional qualifications is “designed to support the professional development of teachers and leaders at all levels”.
They are “based on the best available evidence of what works, providing access to high-quality in-role training and support in the areas that matter most to teaching and learning, ensuring they continue to provide the knowledge and skills needed for teachers and leaders to develop their schools and improve pupil outcomes”.
But the department added that “evidence is not static and insights evolve”.
“Therefore, the department will establish a process for reviewing the existing NPQ suite, to ensure the 19 qualifications continue to be based on the latest evidence and best-practice of what works for teaching and learning.”
8. This year’s pay rise ‘ahead of the wider economy’…
The government said pay settlement data was the “most comparable data to pay review body recommendations, as they are a direct measure of consolidated pay awards and are not directly affected by other factors such as changes to working hours or changes in the composition of employment”.
According to Brightmine, a provider of HR data and analysis, “median settlements across the economy were at 4.8 per cent in 2024 Q2 and 4.0 per cent in 2024 Q3.
The OBR’s forecast “is for average earnings growth to average 4.5% across FY2024-25”
This measure “has historically been higher than average pay settlements, as it is affected by compositional changes in the labour force and factors such as changes to working hours”.
“Against both of these, the 5.5 per cent award for teachers in 2024-25 is ahead of the wider economy, which should support an improvement in recruitment and retention.”
9. …but next year’s will fall below
The OBR predicts earnings growth to fall to 3 per cent in 2025-26. Brightmine’s survey shows the median settlement is also expected to fall to 3 per cent, higher than the 2.8 per cent rise planned for next year.
But the DfE “anticipates that an award of 2.8 per cent is likely to be appropriate, as it would balance maintaining or improving pay competitiveness, while also ensuring the award delivers a real terms pay rise, in the context of CPI forecasts for 2.6 per cent in 2025-26”.
