Trusts are forecasting more growth amid financial challenges worsened by the falling rolls crisis and as one in seven leaders prepare to retire in the next 12 months.
A survey of 417 chief executives, led by the Confederation of School Trusts, has also found that 45 per cent of CEOs are expecting to have to dip into their reserves and that most chains are planning to expand.
CST boss Leora Cruddas believes the results of the study indicate that leaders “increasingly see the power of a trust to bring schools together to address financial and educational challenges, with most anticipating taking on additional schools”.
“This does not mean the future is only about large national trusts – the average trust size is still less than five schools,” she said. “We believe there is scope for a range of different sizes and structures.”
Here’s what you need to know…
Finance worries
CST has been running the survey for the last three years – and for the first time financial sustainability was the most frequently reported priority for 2024-25.
Out of the respondents who said they would focus on this, over 80 per cent said it would be their biggest challenge, higher than in previous years.
Large MATs “are particularly likely to see falling rolls as a major risk to their financial sustainability”. Those with between two and nine schools “are more than twice as likely … to see trust size as a risk factor, which may be linked with their bigger focus on growth”.
Reserves set to drop
When asked how they expected their reserves to change in the next year, 45 per cent expected levels to reduce, while 28 per cent said they would “decrease considerably”. Despite this, 85 per cent said they are sitting on sufficient reserves.
“Half of trust CEOs [are] saying they lack important information to set an accurate budget.
“Out of the[se] respondents … 92 per cent mentioned pay awards for teachers and support staff as important information they lacked to set an accurate budget.”
SEND challenges
Inclusion and SEND provision was most frequently listed as trusts’ main education priority for this academic year.
It was identified by 73 per cent of leaders, up from 56 per cent 12 months ago. Sixty-one per cent of trusts also said they were focusing on attendance.
The main challenge associated with SEND provision was funding and resources (87 per cent). Fifty-seven per cent of respondents identified “coordinating support with external agencies and services” as a challenge, with 47 per cent pointing to staffing.
About 46 per cent of those surveyed do not have a trust-wide director of SEND in place – but around a third of them said they were planning to recruit one.
Building woes
Just 29 per cent of trust chiefs reported that “none of their schools have buildings that could be described as poor”.
Twenty-seven per cent have buildings that either have “major defects” or are failing to operate as intended. This figure rose to 35 per cent among SATs.
More than two-fifths of trusts have at least one school building that is “life expired or at imminent risk of failure”.
More trusts set to grow
Sixty-six per cent of CEOs expect to add to their academy portfolios over the next 12 months.
The research found that larger trusts are more likely to look to expand, “perhaps indicating a continued direction towards consolidation in the sector” as leaders “recognise the benefits of joint working across schools”.
The majority of those wanting to grow are exploring potential academy conversions.
“Sponsorships are seen as likely by less than half of the trusts expecting to grow,” the report added. “However, the analysis by trust size shows that the larger trusts are more likely to be exploring taking on challenging schools through sponsorship or rebrokerage.”
More than a third of chains think they are likely to take part in a merger in the next year.
Meanwhile, SAT bosses were most likely “not to envisage taking on additional schools, with just under half saying they expected to remain the same size”.
CEO retirement plans
About 15 per cent of CEOs said they are considering retirement next year, with this being most prevalent in small to medium organisations.
The report noted this “is a considerable number” and could influence mergers. It could also “give an opportunity for the next generation of trust leaders to step up”.
More focus on flexible working
There has also been more of a focus placed on flexible working. Just over 40 per cent said it was a priority this year, compared 22 per cent in 2023.
“The majority of CEOs (67 per cent) report their trust is offering flexible working options for teachers and support staff … such as remote working, term-time leave, flexible hours, or similar.”
This comes as trusts’ recruitment struggles continue. More than 60 per cent reported problems hiring teachers and TAs, while over 40 per cent are having difficulties finding SEND specialists and school support staff.
AI training for staff
A third of trusts have run staff training on AI, while another 33 per cent have carried out “pilots and experiments” of the technology.
“Trusts have also invested time in developing policies [around AI]. Very few have gone as far as to allocate budgets for schools to use [the technology] or review pupil assessment policies.”
GAG pooling and central teams
The study found that 54 per cent of trusts think their central and shared teams will grow. Just 11 per cent project falls in their central workforce.
On the issue of GAG pooling, the picture is “very similar to last year, with two out of 10 trusts” using the funding the method.
“Even though last year, 9 per cent of trusts indicated they intend to start GAG pooling in the following year, that increase has not materialised this year.
“Large trusts (20+ schools) are more than twice as likely as small and medium trusts to pool their GAG, with 37 per cent saying they already do it.”
