Attracting an extra 6,500 teachers through wage rises alone would cost the government more than £7 billion a year, according to the National Foundation for Educational Research.
An NFER report said ministers would have to hike salaries by almost 10 per cent for the next three years in a row if looking to pay as the sole incentive.
The charity warned Labour was “highly unlikely” to hit the recruitment target if it does nothing – meaning the introduction of new measures is essential.
Association of School and College Leaders general secretary Pepe Di’Iasio said the findings reflected “the scale of the challenge the new government faces in meeting its target”.
“While we welcome that commitment, the stark reality is that even this number of teachers is unlikely to be sufficient.
“This is the result of years of pay erosion and workload pressures created by the previous government’s dismal record of expecting ever more of schools and colleges while failing to provide them with sufficient funding and resources.”
‘There must be change’
Labour committed to recruiting 6,500 new expert teachers before the election without setting out a timeline for the pledge.
Schools Week revealed in September that the party – which has earmarked £450 million for the promise – was looking to hit the target by the end of the Parliament.
Despite this, it remains unclear exactly what the target consists of, with officials recently suggesting part of the figure will be made up of college staff as well as those working in schools.
In its analysis, the NFER adopted a “working definition of the supply target” that assumed it will focus on increasing secondary teachers, excluding PE and history, by 6,500 and “meeting the primary recruitment target” by 2027-28.
The body concluded that a “business-as-usual” approach – which would see pay “increasing at the same rate as average earnings” and “no new policy action” – would be “highly unlikely” to take the government to its goal.
“Achieving the supply target will require new policy measures that are additional to business-as-usual and add to what is already enacted,” it added.
What can be done?
The NFER believes achieving the target through wage increases alone is doable.
But it would require rises of just under 10 per cent a year for the next three years. This would restore teacher salaries to 2010 levels in relative terms, the report suggested.
It would improve retention and increase “recruitment to [initial teacher training], but this has a smaller impact due to only one cohort per year feeling the impact of the change”.
The analysis suggested that it would “reduce the number of subjects below target significantly” and result in “a more experienced workforce than increasing bursaries, for example”.
But of all the options analysed, this came with the highest cost – £7.7 billion every year from 2027-28 onwards.
The “tight fiscal environment may preclude such measures forming a significant part of an overall strategy”.
Jack Worth, of the NFER, warned this meant government “faces a considerable challenge” to meet its pledge.
Cheaper moves either “rely on cost-effective spending on targeted measures aimed at shortage subjects, particularly bursaries and [early career retention payments], or on non-financial measures such as reducing workload or improving CPD”.
But these kinds of changes “are not without risks”. Increasing the value of bursaries and ECRPs would heighten “disparities in remuneration between subjects and could introduce material distortions in teachers’ path of overall remuneration”.
They also “would not be sufficient to meet the supply target in isolation, unless they were taken to unrealistic extremes”.
Bursary increases would have to be taken to levels “above starting salaries”, while ECRPs “require significant expansion to most subjects and higher rates than currently”.
‘Publish your strategy’
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Headteachers, added that “divisive payments targeting teachers in certain shortage subjects, or by location or type of school” is not the answer.
“That will not address the fundamental challenge, which is to build a rewarding, sustainable and attractive career and pay structure that will encourage professionals to remain in the long term.”
NFER has called on the government to publish a “comprehensive strategy for how it defines and plans to meet the 6,500-teacher supply target”.
Measurescould include a “broader range of retention payments” covering all schools, apply to all teachers of certain subjects regardless of experience and with higher rates for those in schools serving disadvantaged communities.
It also wants the Department for Education to “invest in deepening the evidence base of interventions that can improve recruitment and retention”.
This would allow “better comparative assessments of the relative costs and impacts within a single analytical framework”.
