Special schools in England are over-capacity by around 11,000 pupils, new government data shows, despite an increase in the number of settings year-on-year.
Department for Education school capacity data shows that as of May 2025, there were around 160,000 places in 1,100 special schools.
But there were around 170,000 pupils in total, which “means that there are approximately 11,000 more pupils on roll in special schools than reported capacity”.
The numbers are rounded, which is why the over-capacity figure seems larger than it should be.
The figure of 11,000 marks a 37.5 per cent increase on the figure for 2024, 8,000. It comes despite there being a net increase in the number of special schools of 12 over the period.
The DfE said the figure was “due to the number of schools at or over capacity (around two thirds), but also may be a result of the way capacity has been measured which does not take account of type of need”.
“Caution should be taken when comparing pupils and capacity by phase, as any differences may be a result of how the total capacity of all-through schools has been apportioned between the primary and secondary phases.”
Forecast to increase
The data also reveals how councils forecast 260,000 pupils with an EHCP will need a specialist provision place in 2025-26. This includes independent, units in mainstream and alternative provision, but was collected before DfE announced its SEND reforms.
Councils forecast annual growth to “gradually slow” from 6.8 per cent in 2025-26 to 4.2 per cent in 2029-30.
DfE said this growth at the same time primary school population is forecast to decline and level-off at secondary “implies the proportion of pupils with an EHC plan that need a place in specialist provision is forecast to increase”.
It follows a decision by the government to cancel 18 special free school projects and give councils the choice with whether to proceed with a further 59, or receive funding to expand existing provision.
Schools Week revealed earlier this month that more than half of the specialist school projects put on hold by the government are set to go ahead.
DfE pledged to collect special school capacity data after a Schools Week investigation exposed it did not gather it.
In 2022, we exposed how 54 per cent of special schools had more pupils on roll than the number commissioned by their council.
Ministers will also give top marks to councils’ deficits plans for avoiding expanding specialist provision.
Fewer mainstream schools over-capacity
Overall data on school capacity shows the continuing impact of falling rolls.
It shows the proportion of primary schools at or over capacity fell from 16 per cent in 2023-24 to 14 per cent in 2024-25. The figure was 23 per cent in 2016-17.
There was an even larger drop in the proportion of secondaries at or over capacity, from 24 to 19 per cent.
It comes as a population bulge caused by a baby boom in the 2000s makes its way through the school system.
In 2024-25, there were 680,000 unfilled places in primary schools, the highest number of unfilled places since the data collection began in 2009-10.
There were 510,000 unfilled places in secondary schools, also up on previous years, but the DfE said this will be affected by its programme of net capacity assessments, which seeks to gather more information from schools.
Today’s data also shows the number of specialist places in mainstream schools and the number of schools providing them has continued to increase, ahead of government reforms that will ask all secondaries to have an inclusion base.
In 2024-25, 1,915 schools reported having specialist provision, up from 1,781 in 2023-24 and 1,631 in 2022-23.
There were 22,165 places in resourced provision last year, up from 19,862 the previous year and 17,820 in 2022-23. And there were 10,069 places in SEND units, up from 9,828 the year before and 9,010 the previous year.
