At first glance, the crisis in the Middle East has little to do with schools in England.
But economics teachers know all too well how interconnected the global economy is, and earlier this week Rachel Reeves openly acknowledged the risk to the UK.
Schools were already facing an uncomfortable mix of tight budgets, uncertainty over teacher pay and the potential for industrial action.
A fresh inflationary shock, driven by higher energy prices and wider supply disruption, is now likely to make all three problems harder to solve.
If the crisis proves short-lived, some of that pressure may ease. But if disruption persists, the assumptions about what schools can afford will unravel faster than a year 8’s excuse for wandering the corridors during lesson time.
‘Entirely misguided’
The Department for Education’s case on affordability was already looking stretched, with union leaders recently calling it “disingenuous”, “insulting” and “entirely misguided”.
The government’s recent form on forecasting school cost pressures has not inspired confidence either.
Its latest technical note suggested that, excluding pay awards, school costs will rise by only 1.9 per cent across the next two years.
Energy is one pressure point, but it is not the only one. If inflation rises again, it will not just show up in heating and electricity bills.
It is likely to feed through into food, transport, procurement and a range of other costs schools are already struggling to absorb.
Schools may also feel it indirectly through families and pupils, as any renewed squeeze on household finances tends to show up in greater demand for practical and pastoral support.
Timing hardly worse for Phillipson
The timing of the crisis could hardly be worse for education secretary Bridget Phillipson, who has the school teachers’ review body’s recommendations for teacher pay for the next two years sitting on her desk.
Even before this crisis, it already looked likely that ministers were heading for a collision with teaching unions.
The DfE had previously suggested a pay increase of 6.5 per cent over the next three years, weighted more heavily towards the latter years.
If ministers now follow through on that logic, Phillipson is likely to find herself trying to justify a real-terms pay cut this September.
The politics of teacher pay were already difficult, and this crisis may harden positions further.
As Schools Week has already reported, pay and funding uncertainty was already hanging over conference season.
While Ofsted’s Martyn Oliver may have temporarily drawn some of the negative attention at the ASCL conference, feeling at the NEU and NASUWT conferences this week is likely to be amplified by the economic fallout from the Middle East crisis.
Honeymoon over
The decision to give Green Party leader Zack Polanski a platform at the NEU conference is relevant here too. It is another sign that the honeymoon period the government enjoyed with teaching unions in 2024 is over.
The NEU is already conducting an indicative ballot on industrial action, with motions on pay expected to be debated at conference.
It would be no surprise if that translated into formal ballots on strike action. That does not make strikes inevitable, but it does make them more likely.
What makes matters worse for the government is that, while unions will be pushing for higher teacher pay and for it to be fully funded, the economy is likely to be in an even worse position to deliver either.
Add to that pressure for higher defence spending, slowing growth and rising costs across government, and the outlook for schools becomes even more difficult.
That leaves Phillipson and the DfE trying to solve a problem with no easy answer.
If inflation rises, the pressure for a more generous pay settlement and more school funding grows. If the public finances tighten, the money to fund either becomes harder to find.
I doubt Donald Trump will give the English schools sector much thought when he chooses his next move, but he really should.
